A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
